As I sit down to analyze the upcoming UAAP Season 85 basketball tournament, I can't help but draw parallels with what's happening in the professional volleyball scene. Just last Friday, the PVL Rookie Draft Combine opened at Paco Arena without its consensus top pick Bella Belen, and honestly, that kind of unpredictability is what makes Philippine collegiate sports so fascinating. The absence of a star player can completely reshape team dynamics, and that's precisely what we need to watch for in this UAAP basketball season.

The tournament kicks off on September 10, 2023, with a double-header at the Mall of Asia Arena that promises to set the tone for the entire season. I've been covering UAAP basketball for over a decade now, and what strikes me about this season's schedule is how strategically spaced the games are. Teams will play 14 elimination round games across 10 weeks, with each squad getting adequate rest between matches. The first round concludes on October 15, followed by a brief break before the second round commences on October 21. This scheduling approach shows the league's commitment to player welfare, something I've been advocating for years. The traditional four-game weekends will mostly take place at MOA Arena, while the midweek games will rotate between various venues including the Araneta Coliseum and smaller campuses. Personally, I love this mix because it gives different communities access to live games while maintaining the electric atmosphere of the larger arenas for crucial matchups.

Looking at the team standings projection based on preseason performance, I have to say this might be one of the most balanced seasons we've seen in recent memory. The University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons are my pick to finish atop the standings with around 12 wins, given their incredible recruitment class and returning core. Ateneo Blue Eagles, despite losing some key players, should secure second place with approximately 11 victories thanks to their systematic approach to development. What really excites me is the battle for the third and fourth spots. De La Salle University and Far Eastern University are both looking at 9-10 win seasons, but I'm giving the slight edge to La Salle because of their improved three-point shooting during the preseason. The middle of the pack features University of Santo Tomas at 7 wins, National University at 6, Adamson at 5, and University of the East rounding out at 3 victories. These projections might surprise some fans, but based on what I've seen in practice games and considering player development patterns, this feels about right.

The schedule reveals some absolutely must-watch games that could determine final standings. The first round encounter between UP and Ateneo on September 17 is what I'm circling on my calendar - this early matchup could set the psychological tone for both teams' seasons. Another fascinating aspect is how the schedule creates natural momentum swings. Teams like UE face a brutal opening stretch with three top-tier opponents in their first four games, while Adamson gets a relatively softer start that could help build confidence. From my experience covering multiple seasons, these early schedule advantages or disadvantages can profoundly impact a team's playoff chances. The second round becomes particularly crucial for bubble teams - FEU faces a challenging final three games that might make or break their Final Four aspirations.

What really stands out to me this season is the depth of talent across all eight teams. Unlike previous years where 2-3 teams dominated, I'm seeing legitimate rotation players even on the projected lower-ranked squads. The development programs at schools like UST and NU are starting to bear fruit, creating more parity throughout the league. This reminds me of the PVL situation with Bella Belen - sometimes the absence of established stars allows new talents to emerge, and I suspect we'll see several breakout performances this UAAP season. The increased competitiveness means every game matters, and frankly, that's better for the sport and more exciting for fans like us.

As we approach tip-off, I'm particularly interested in how teams will manage player fatigue given the compact schedule. The data from last season showed a significant drop in shooting percentages during back-to-back games, and coaches who can effectively rotate their benches will gain a crucial advantage. My prediction is that we'll see more teams employing 9-10 player rotations rather than relying heavily on starters, which could lead to some surprising individual performances from role players. The team that best manages this aspect might just sneak into the Final Four despite having less raw talent than their competitors.

Reflecting on the complete picture, this UAAP Season 85 shapes up as potentially one of the most memorable in recent history. The combination of a well-structured schedule, increased parity among teams, and the emergence of new stars creates the perfect storm for compelling basketball. While my projections suggest certain outcomes, the beauty of collegiate sports lies in its unpredictability - much like Bella Belen's unexpected absence from the PVL combine reminding us that in Philippine sports, expect the unexpected. As a longtime follower of UAAP basketball, I genuinely believe this season will deliver drama, excitement, and perhaps a Cinderella story that will capture the nation's imagination.