I remember watching those Saudi Arabian national team games three years ago with a mix of professional curiosity and personal fascination. The 84-46 demolition at the Mall of Asia Arena particularly stands out in my memory—not just because it was Jordan Clarkson's Philippine home debut, but because of what it revealed about building competitive basketball programs. As I analyze Pepperdine University's current basketball situation, I can't help but draw parallels between that Saudi squad missing key players and Pepperdine's own journey back to relevance.

The Waves' basketball history is genuinely impressive when you dig into it. They've made 13 NCAA Tournament appearances, reaching the Elite Eight in 1976 and producing NBA talent like Doug Christie. But let's be honest—the program has been stuck in what I'd call a "competitive drought" for nearly two decades. Their last tournament appearance was in 2002, and watching them struggle through West Coast Conference play sometimes reminds me of that Saudi team getting blown out by 38 points in Manila. When you're missing your equivalent of Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Mohammed Alsuwailem—those difference-makers who can change a program's trajectory—you're essentially fighting with one hand tied behind your back.

What fascinates me about Pepperdine's current rebuild is how they're approaching roster construction differently than in previous years. Having covered college basketball for over fifteen years, I've seen programs try to buy their way back to relevance with transfer-heavy approaches that often backfire. Pepperdine seems to be blending experienced transfers with developing their own talent, which I believe is the smarter long-term strategy. The Waves landed what I'd consider a B+ recruiting class last year, bringing in three four-star prospects according to 247Sports, though they did miss on that five-star big man who ultimately chose Gonzaga.

The financial commitment from the university tells me they're serious about this turnaround. From what I've gathered through sources close to the program, Pepperdine has increased their basketball budget by approximately 42% over the past three years. They've upgraded training facilities, expanded their analytics department from two to six full-time staff members, and perhaps most importantly, they're paying head coach Lorenzo Romar around $1.2 million annually—that's serious money for a mid-major program. I've always believed that financial commitment separates programs that occasionally have good seasons from those that sustain success.

Looking at their current roster construction, I'm particularly intrigued by their international pipeline. They've got two players from Australia, one from Serbia, and they're actively recruiting in Africa—a market that programs like Gonzaga and Louisville have mined successfully. This global approach reminds me of how the Philippine national team strategically integrated Ange Kouame as a naturalized player. That move in the second Saudi-Philippines game where Gilas won 76-63 demonstrated how one impactful player can change a team's ceiling. If Pepperdine can land that program-changing international prospect, it could accelerate their timeline significantly.

The West Coast Conference landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. Gonzaga remains the gold standard—they've made 23 consecutive NCAA tournaments, which is just insane consistency. Saint Mary's and BYU have established themselves as consistent contenders. But I see an opening for Pepperdine to climb into that next tier with San Francisco and Santa Clara. What encourages me is their improved defensive efficiency numbers—they jumped from 287th to 164th nationally in defensive rating last season. Still, they need to get to top-100 level defensively to compete for an NCAA bid.

Recruiting in Southern California gives them a natural advantage, though they haven't always capitalized on it. The greater Los Angeles area produces about 35 Division I players annually, yet Pepperdine has only signed four local top-100 prospects in the past five years. That needs to change. When I spoke with a Pepperdine assistant coach last summer, he emphasized their renewed focus on keeping local talent home, particularly targeting Sherman Oaks and Harvard-Westlake prospects. If they can lock down their backyard, the talent foundation becomes much stronger.

The mental aspect of rebuilding can't be overlooked either. Watching teams learn how to win close games is something I've studied extensively. Last season, Pepperdine went 4-7 in games decided by five points or fewer. That's actually an improvement from the previous year's 2-9 record in such games, but they need to get to .500 or better in those situations to make the next leap. The psychological hurdle of believing you belong with the Gonzagas of the world is real—it's similar to how the Saudi team seemed to play with more confidence in the second game against the Philippines, losing by 13 instead of 38.

From my perspective, Pepperdine's path back to the NCAA Tournament likely requires winning the West Coast Conference tournament rather than earning an at-large bid. The conference hasn't received multiple bids since 2020, and the selection committee has shown reluctance to include more than two WCC teams. This means the Waves need to peak at the right time—something that requires both depth and tournament-tested guards. Their backcourt development will be crucial, particularly finding a primary ball-handler who can create his own shot in late-clock situations.

I'm cautiously optimistic about their trajectory. They've got the resources, the location, and what appears to be genuine administrative commitment. But the margin for error in mid-major basketball is razor-thin. One recruiting miss, one key injury, one transfer portal departure can set a program back years. If they can maintain their current trajectory and land at least one transformative recruit in the next two classes, I believe we could see Pepperdine back in the NCAA Tournament within the next 3-4 years. That would be a remarkable achievement given where the program was just five years ago, and it would reestablish Pepperdine as a legitimate force in West Coast basketball—something that feels overdue to this longtime observer of the program.